Pros and Cons of the impending change in energy infrastructure

2008-07-01T13:03:49-07:00

Portable Energy Type	Pros	Cons
Biodiesel	Nearly equivalent power density to normal diesel Only minor changes in distribution infrastructure are needed Only minor changes in current diesel systems are needed	Agricultural basis creates competition for human food sources Diesels in the US are a minority
Ethanol	Good power density (80% that of gasoline[roughly]) Only minor changes in distribution infrastructure are needed Conversion of gasoline systems is not straight forward but is possible	Agricultural basis creates competition for human food sources Substantial expense for upgrading existing gasoline engines Enhanced agricultural/organic technologies needed to completely replace petroleum
Battery/Electric	Adequate battery systems exist for most commuter needs Very cheap mileage if charged on grid power Zero emissions Very low maintenance	Very high initial cost of systems and conversions Completely inadequate infrastructure in place, could take generations to change Battery technology is not an adequate replacement for many current transportation applications
Hydrogen/Electric	Superior power storage to currently used technologies “Safe” emissions Very cheap mileage if hydrogen is hydrolyzed from water with grid power instead of refined from hydrocarbon sources	Technology is not feasible yet Infrastructure is almost non-existent Storage technologies not mature yet
Bicycle/Walking	Very cheap mileage Makes for a fitter nation Improves quality of life	Infrastructure is seriously sub standard in the US Limited effective mileage does not match current population density distribution in US Transport applications are limited by personal fitness

Because whether you believe in it or not, the era of cheap oil is over. All remaining reserves are harder to get, harder to transport or harder to refine, which boils down to higher prices from here on out. And while many well off Americans and our contemporaries may be able to afford the rising costs of portable energy in the near term, what happens when gasoline and diesel keeps rising in cost? Can you afford $20/g gasoline? Right now the poor in America are really suffering from the rising cost of gas, but it's really only a matter of time before the middle class begins to buckle. How will you collect your food and sundries when your daily work commute is already breaking your budget? What options do you have once you can no longer afford to drive to and from work?

This is not about saving gas money.

2008-05-15T11:11:08-07:00

So it seems that I've had more and more conversations with people while biking around northern VA that start out like this, “So your biking around to save gas money?”

To which I usually answer something pretty consistent with, “No, not really. While it does save money by not using gas to get around, I haven't ditched my car, which is necessary to save a lot of money by bicycling. I bike mainly because it seems to be a better use of my body, has less of an impact on the environment than driving. And in the back of my mind I'm really very worried that a worst case 'peak oil' scenario would leave me unprepared to support my family if I didn't do this regularly.”

Surprisingly, I often get quite nods as it begins to sink in that the rising gas prices are really the very tip of the “peak oil” iceberg. I've been expecting the typical Virginian conservative response, “You fucking hippie!”, or some variation there of. And actually that silently thoughtful and slightly worried kind of reaction just makes me more worried. It's easy to predict “doom and gloom” scenarios and tell people about them, it is quite a different thing when people start to quietly agree with you.

But I should be clear on this, my strategy is to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Hopefully “peak oil” will pass and life will change slowly enough that civilization is able to adjust easily. Hopefully the only thing I'll be able to say in 10 years is that bicycle commuting made me a greener, more fit and independent person. I am really hoping that some of the worst implications of a nation unprepared for “peak oil” will not come to pass. In 10 years I don't want to talk about how my bicycle commuting prepared me to help my family make it through a tough international or domestic crisis.

Hope for the Best

Pros and Cons of the impending change in energy infrastructure

This is not about saving gas money.